Protection of Stability Gets More Challenging. Data for September and anecdotal evidence for October show a sharp deterioration in the speed of the post-Covid and post-sanctions recovery in the Russian economy. As the population turns to savings mode, domestic businesses have shelved expansion plans while foreign companies continue to exit Russia.
New this week: October 27th: President Putin announced that he would extend the moratorium on inspections of business until the end of 2023.
New this week: October 20th: The government will postpone, until the end of 2023, the ban on acquiring or leasing retail facilities from foreign companies selling retail food products.
Demographic Trends Boost Growth Expectations. Population growth is a contributor to economic expansion. The population of Central Asia is currently 121.4 mln and it is projected to grow to 161 mln within 15 years.
At the end of September, President Mirziyoyev appointed Jurabek Mirzamahmudov as Energy Minister as well as Deputy Prime Minister with oversight of the fuel, energy, and the chemical industrial complex. This means the government again has six Deputy Prime Ministers.
The monthly polls by the Levada Center reported a tangible fall in support for President Putin, the Russian government, and the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine. This decline followed the announcement of partial mobilization on September 21st.
New this week: October 7th: A Presidential Decree sets new rules for some Sakhalin-based production sharing agreements (PSA) operated by Exxon, on a similar model to other Sakhalin PSAs.
New this week: October 2nd: The Russian government imposed a retaliatory ban on trucking in Russia for companies from the EU countries, Norway, Ukraine and the UK. The decree comes into force on October 10th and will be valid until December 31st .
The Russian economy remains in a fragile balance after the slide posted in 2Q22. On one hand, the domestic output is supported by strong energy prices, rising government expenditures, especially in the defense sphere, a good harvest, and the improved stability of prices and the financial areas, not least because of the surprisingly resilient ruble exchange rate.
New this week: September 23rd: A government decree says that the jobs of mobilized citizens should be suspended but not terminated and should resume after military service.
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