In Context: Sanctions Impact
Predictions of a rapid economic decline and a budget crisis have proven to be greatly exaggerated.
20/02/2023
Category: In Context
In Context: Caucasus Demographics
The population of the three Caucasus states is 17.4 mln. Armenia and Georgia suffered from mass immigration in the 1990s and the legacy effect is a declining birth rate today.
11/01/2023
In Context: Central Asia Demographics
Demographic Trends Boost Growth Expectations. Population growth is a contributor to economic expansion. The population of Central Asia is currently 121.4 mln and it is projected to grow to 161 mln within 15 years.
24/10/2022
In Context: Russia Economic Scenarios Leak
A government report, leaked to Bloomberg, shows a scenario where the economy suffers a steeper-for-longer decline. This is widely interpreted as meaning that the government is secretly assuming a much more difficult economic outlook and greater damage from sanctions than the generally more optimistic statements and current data shows.
06/09/2022
Russia In Context: Managing Technology Sanctions and Shortages
Despite announcements of the success in import substitution, Russian technology products are still dependent on foreign supplies for key inputs. Two high profile projects – the Elbrus chip and the Baikal chip – are manufactured abroad. Domestic chip production is still about two generations behind the most advanced global technologies.
01/07/2022
In Context: What Happens if Putin Leaves?
The constitution says that in all cases where the President is unable to carry out his duties, the Prime Minister becomes acting President, with limited powers, and an election must be held within three months.
23/05/2022
In Context: Russia’s Energy Strategy to 2035 – Part 1: Overview
After February 24th the global energy outlook changed. The Russian Energy Minister announced on April 20th that in September 2022 a new document will be released covering the Russian Energy Strategy to 2050.
03/05/2022
In Context: Russia’s 2035 Energy Roadmap – Part 3: Gas Sector
The implementation of decarbonization policy over the next 20 years may shift the focus of Russia’s geological exploration industry from the search for oil deposits to the search for gas deposits, although the Energy Strategy (ES-2035) has yet to factor in an increased role for gas.
03/05/2022
In Context: Russia’s 2035 Energy Roadmap – Part 2: Oil Sector
The Energy Strategy 2035 highlights the crucial challenge for the Russian oil sector: to increase oil production in Eastern Siberia, the Far East, and the Arctic zone to compensate for declining production in Western Siberia.
03/05/2022
In Context: The Surprising Return of the Ruble
For over a year before the start of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine the Russian currency had been very stable trading in a RUB70-77/US$ range. It was traded under RUB70/US$ on October 26th, a day before the reports of a Russian military buildup on the Ukraine border emerged. On the eve of the start of the special operation the ruble lost ground and moved into a RUB77-83/US$ band.
04/04/2022
