Category: In Context

Demographic Trends Boost Growth Expectations. Population growth is a contributor to economic expansion. The population of Central Asia is currently 121.4 mln and it is projected to grow to 161 mln within 15 years.

A government report, leaked to Bloomberg, shows a scenario where the economy suffers a steeper-for-longer decline. This is widely interpreted as meaning that the government is secretly assuming a much more difficult economic outlook and greater damage from sanctions than the generally more optimistic statements and current data shows.

Despite announcements of the success in import substitution, Russian technology products are still dependent on foreign supplies for key inputs. Two high profile projects – the Elbrus chip and the Baikal chip – are manufactured abroad. Domestic chip production is still about two generations behind the most advanced global technologies.

The constitution says that in all cases where the President is unable to carry out his duties, the Prime Minister becomes acting President, with limited powers, and an election must be held within three months. 

For over a year before the start of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine the Russian currency had been very stable trading in a RUB70-77/US$ range. It was traded under RUB70/US$ on October 26th, a day before the reports of a Russian military buildup on the Ukraine border emerged. On the eve of the start of the special operation the ruble lost ground and moved into a RUB77-83/US$ band.

Very little actually happened at this year’s SPIEF. The key message, however, was to showcase that Russia is almost recovered from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and is getting back to business. Much was made of the fact that this was the first major economic forum in the world since early 2020.

Very positive message expected at SPIEF. Government officials will focus on development plans and efforts to attract more investment in support of those plans. The main message is that Russia has entered a new phase of growth.