Income growth is a key government policy. Raising the country to high-middle income status by the end of the decade is a key policy priority for the President. This will be a powerful driver for the consumer sector.
EU leaders are holding a two-day summit focused almost entirely on the conflict in Ukraine, it is expected the leaders will approve Ukraine to apply for EU membership and will issue a warning that a seventh package of sanctions is being considered.
President Macron, Chancellor Scholtz and Prime Minister Draghi are expected to visit Kyiv “within days”. They are expected to confirm that no peace deals and no sanctions easing with Russia will be agreed without the approval of Kyiv. They are also expected to warn Moscow of further sanctions if the fighting escalates or does not end soon.
The crisis caused by events in Ukraine triggered huge problems across the Eurasia region. For Kazakhstan, headline growth estimates have been revised downwards from to 2.0-2.5% (from 4.0% last year). Refer to our Kazakhstan Briefing Modernization: Means, Motive and Opportunity, (issued in May), for an in-depth analysis of economic trends and political changes.
The post-Soviet liberalization of the Russian economy and the rapid growth of China in the same period have resurrected the pre-1914 vision of uniting Eurasia via transport corridors and harmonized trade and customs procedures. This report looks at the current situation and development plans, in terms of physical infrastructure and regulatory frameworks, that aim to realize this vision.
The post-Soviet liberalization of the Russian economy and the rapid growth of China in the same period have resurrected the pre-1914 vision of uniting Eurasia via transport corridors. This report looks at the current situation and development plans, in terms of physical infrastructure and regulatory frameworks, that aim to realize this vision.
The military action and statements by senior Russian officials suggest that Moscow is now entirely focused on gaining full control of the Donbas region as quickly as possible. The fate of the Donbas will be the most difficult part of peace talks.
Having concentrated on fiscal and monetary reforms and on advancing big infrastructure projects, over the past five years, the government is now much more actively pursuing economic and export diversification projects, to create employment and support rural communities. Agriculture has emerged top of the priority sector list.
Both in terms of the fighting in eastern Ukraine and the sanctions momentum, there are grounds for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. But there is a clear sense that whatever happens next will be a major game-changer for Russia’s relations with the West and for the economy.
The January protests re-enforced the president’s motivation for reform. Several major initiatives are expected this year to invigorate economic modernization and social reforms. The first stage will be the major overhaul of the constitution on June 5th.