The Constitutional reform program is the mechanism for political change which, in turn, should be the catalyst for increased investment and long-term economic growth.
Recent events in Minsk signal that political change has started in Belarus (see our separately published reports covering political and macro-economic analysis). While the timing is uncertain, what is clear is that political changes will also lead to policy changes and, very likely, a greater openness to foreign investors.
While the timing and sequence are uncertain, it appears obvious that the process of political transition has started. The question is when, and how, the elites and security forces will act. Moscow can be expected to exert a great deal of influence, a fact not lost on the protestors who have avoided blaming Moscow.