Category: Ukraine

It appears the Russian military has changed its strategy and is now focused on preparing defensive positions for a “frozen winter conflict” while increasing the intensity of missile attacks to destroy Ukraine’s power infrastructure.

President Putin has ordered the removal of civilians from the west bank of the Dnieper River leading to speculation of either preparations for a major battle or the setup of a more defensible line on the east bank of the river.

In our last update, we referred to “the Dangerous Month of October” (October 1st). So far, this is unfolding.

The four provinces controlled by the Russian military in eastern Ukraine have, unsurprisingly, voted to join the Russian Federation. The Federation Council is expected to approve the applications on October 4th and President Putin (who will be 70 years old on October 7th) is expected to sign the legislation shortly afterwards.

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President Zelensky has said that there can be no peace deal with Russia until Crimea is returned to Ukraine. This is a hardening of his position as previously he set the condition as a return to the pre-February 24th position.

Presidents Putin and Erdogan will meet again on August 5th in Sochi. Turkey has positioned itself as a peace mediator but, so far, without success.

President Putin was very hawkish in a speech to parliamentary leaders, stating that the campaign in Ukraine had not yet started in earnest. At the weekend, it was announced that Russia is intensifying the bombardment of Ukraine held positions.

Predictably the three major summits (EU, G7 and NATO) were very focused on additional support for Ukraine and threats against Russia. But nothing significant was agreed other than to consider an improbable price-cap on Russian oil and gas exports.

EU leaders are holding a two-day summit focused almost entirely on the conflict in Ukraine, it is expected the leaders will approve Ukraine to apply for EU membership and will issue a warning that a seventh package of sanctions is being considered.