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Level 5, Macroeconomy. We work with many of the world’s largest corporations and financial agencies and provide them with economic, political, industry and risk advice across all industry sectors and throughout the entire Eurasian region. Our clients include 80 multinationals, trade organisations and financial institutions working across the region.
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The additional sanctions now applied to Russia carry significant implications for the macro case and will make it very difficult, if not impossible, for the government to achieve its declared national economic and social goals or to fund the National Projects.
In a widely anticipated move by the market, Russia’s central bank decided on Friday, December 17th to hike its key rate by 100bp to 8.5%. Although this decision puts the real key rate into positive territory for the first time since October 2020, it also shows that the CBR has significant concerns over the inflation trend and, therefore, prefers to keep a hawkish monetary stance.
Russia inherited bad demography from the Soviet Union, and added its own twist with a low birth rate in the 1990s. The economic boom of the 2000s helped the birth rate to rise and the death rate to fall, but the downturn since 2013 has pushed the birth rate down again.
Investors have reacted very positively to the indications, since validated, that Volodymyr Zelenskiy is on course to be Ukraine’s sixth elected president. It is not that Zelenskiy has published a major new program for government or even a strong list of policy priorities. He has, in fact, been deliberately vague on what he would focus on if elected president.