Russia Macro Monthly March 2023
GDP exceeded expectation in 2022. Despite the shortcomings of macro analysis in the current environment, the latest data points to improvements in the macro sphere.
06/03/2023
Archives: Reports
What Lies Beneath – Putin’s Federal Assembly Address
Much Ado About Nothing. The only significant statement in the speech was Russia’s suspension of the strategic arms reduction treaty (new START).
21/02/2023
In Context: Sanctions Impact
Predictions of a rapid economic decline and a budget crisis have proven to be greatly exaggerated.
20/02/2023
Conflict and Sanctions Sitrep: Intense Speculation Ahead of a Critical Week
There are several major events scheduled between now and Friday 24th, the 12-month anniversary of the start of what Moscow calls the Special Military Operation (SMO) and the West calls an invasion.
20/02/2023
Russia Macro Monthly February 2023
A more challenging 2023. In 2023, four main factors will affect the economy. One is political, i.e., the geopolitical situation, the direction of the conflict in Ukraine, and associated sanctions. The other three factors are economic – exports, investments, and domestic demand. The same factors provided the macro backdrop for 2022.
10/02/2023
2023 Russia Outlook: Life in a Very Cold Climate
The conflict changes the model. President Putin’s announcement in February 2022 of what he refers to as a “Special Military Operation” (SMO), marked a fundamental shift in how Russian domestic politics works, with rippling effects throughout the Eurasia region.
09/02/2023
Conflict and Sanctions Sitrep: No Medium Term Off-Ramp, But a Summer Pit-Stop May be Possible
Escalation expected in the coming months. Reports from eastern Ukraine confirm an increase in fighting. This is expected to intensify ahead of the February 24th anniversary and before the arrival of the next batch of NATO equipment is delivered to Ukrainian forces.
06/02/2023
Russia’s Sanctions Response Diary – February 6th 2023
New this week: February 2nd: Government submits law that bans the operation of debt collection agencies in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhiya and Khersson regions for the next three years.
06/02/2023
Russia’s Sanctions Response Diary – January 30th 2023
New this week: January 25th: From January 30th it will be possible to import vegetables, fruit and other food products from China via the Kani-Kurgan border point in the Amur region.
30/01/2023
Uzbekistan: Reform of the Civil Service and Government Structures
In late December, President Mirziyoyev signed a decree to radically reform the structure of government. It reduced the number of ministries and streamlined the management functions under Deputy Prime Ministers.
23/01/2023
