Russia Macro Monthly March 2023
GDP exceeded expectation in 2022. Despite the shortcomings of macro analysis in the current environment, the latest data points to improvements in the macro sphere.
GDP exceeded expectation in 2022. Despite the shortcomings of macro analysis in the current environment, the latest data points to improvements in the macro sphere.
Much Ado About Nothing. The only significant statement in the speech was Russia’s suspension of the strategic arms reduction treaty (new START).
Predictions of a rapid economic decline and a budget crisis have proven to be greatly exaggerated.
There are several major events scheduled between now and Friday 24th, the 12-month anniversary of the start of what Moscow calls the Special Military Operation (SMO) and the West calls an invasion.
A more challenging 2023. In 2023, four main factors will affect the economy. One is political, i.e., the geopolitical situation, the direction of the conflict in Ukraine, and associated sanctions. The other three factors are economic – exports, investments, and domestic demand. The same factors provided the macro backdrop for 2022.
The conflict changes the model. President Putin’s announcement in February 2022 of what he refers to as a “Special Military Operation” (SMO), marked a fundamental shift in how Russian domestic politics works, with rippling effects throughout the Eurasia region.
Escalation expected in the coming months. Reports from eastern Ukraine confirm an increase in fighting. This is expected to intensify ahead of the February 24th anniversary and before the arrival of the next batch of NATO equipment is delivered to Ukrainian forces.
New this week: February 2nd: Government submits law that bans the operation of debt collection agencies in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhiya and Khersson regions for the next three years.
New this week: January 25th: From January 30th it will be possible to import vegetables, fruit and other food products from China via the Kani-Kurgan border point in the Amur region.
In late December, President Mirziyoyev signed a decree to radically reform the structure of government. It reduced the number of ministries and streamlined the management functions under Deputy Prime Ministers.
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Copyright © 2022 Macro-Advisory Ltd.
All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 2022 Macro-Advisory Ltd.
All Rights Reserved